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RBI & how its policies can start to affect the market
Disclaimer: This DD is to help start forming a market view as per RBI announcements. Also a gentle reminder that fundamentals play out over a longer time frame than intraday. The authors take no responsiblity for your yolos. With contributions by Asli Bakchodi, Bran OP & dragononweed! What is the RBI? RBI is the central bank of India. They are one of the key players who affect India’s economic trajectory. They control currency supply, banking rules and more. This means that it is not a bank in which retailers or corporates can open an account with. Instead they are a bank for bankers and the Government of India. Their functions can be broadly classified into 6. · Monetary authority · Financial supervisor for financial system · Issuer of currency · Manages Foreign exchange · Bankers bank · Banker to the government This DD will take a look at each of these functions. It will be followed by a list of rates the RBI sets, and how changes in them can affect the market. 1.Monetary Authority One of RBI’s functions is to achieve the goal of “Price Stability” in the economy. This essentially means achieving an inflation rate that is within a desired limit. A monetary policy committee (MPC) decides on the desired inflation rate and its limits through majority vote of its 6 members, in consultation with the GoI. The current inflation target for RBI is as follows Consumer Price Inflation (CPI): 4% Upper Limit: 6% Lower Limit: 2% An increase in CPI means less purchasing power. Generally speaking, if inflation is too high, the public starts cutting down on spending, leading to a negative impact on the markets. And vice versa. Lower inflation leads to more purchasing power, more spending, more investments leading to a positive impact on the market. 2.Financial Supervisor For Financial System A financial system consists of financial markets (Capital market, money market, forex market etc.), financial institutions (banks, stock exchanges, NBFC etc) & financial assets (currencies, bills, bonds etc) RBI supervises this entire system and lays down the rules and regulations for it. It can also use further ‘Selective Credit Controls’ to regulate banks. 3.Issues of currency The RBI is responsible for the printing of currency notes. RBI is free to print as much as it wants as long as the minimum reserve of Rs 200 Cr (Gold 112 Cr) is maintained. The RBI has total assets or a balance size sheet of Rs. 51 trillion (April 2020). (1 Trillion = 1 Lakh crore) India’s current reserves mean our increase in currency circulation is well managed. 4.Manages Foreign Exchange RBI regulates all of India’s foreign exchange transactions. It is the custodian of all of foreign currencies in India. It allows for the foreign exchange value of the rupee to be controlled. RBI also buy and sell rupees in the foreign exchange market at its discretion. In case of any currency movement, a country’s central bank can directly intervene to either push the currency up, as India has been doing, or to keep it artificially low, as the Chinese central bank does. To push up a currency, a central bank can sell dollars, which is the global reserve currency, or the currency against which all others are measured. To push down a currency, a central bank can buy dollars. The RBI deciding this depends on the import/export and financial health of the country. Generally a weaker rupee means imports are more expensive, but are favourable for exports. And a stronger rupee means imports are cheaper but are unfavourable for exports. A weaker rupee can make foreign investment more lucrative driving up FII. A stronger rupee can have an adverse effect of FII investing in markets. 5.Banker’s Bank Every bank has to maintain a certain amount of reserve with the RBI. A certain percentage of a bank’s liabilities (anywhere between 3-15% as decided by RBI) has to be maintained in this account. This is called the Cash Reserve Ratio. This is determined by the MPC during the monetary policy review (which happens every six weeks at present). It lends money from this reserve to other banks if they are short on cash, but generally, it is seen as a last resort move. Banks are encouraged to meet their shortfalls of cash from other resources. 6.Banker to the government RBI is the entity that carries out ALL monetary transactions on behalf of the Government. It holds custody of the cash balance of the Government, gives temporary loans to both central and state governments and manages the debt operations of the central Government, through instruments of debt and the interest rates associated with them - like bonds. The different rates set & managed by RBI - Repo rate The rate at which RBI is willing to lend to commercial banks is called as Repo Rate. Banks sometimes need money for emergency or to maintain the SLR and CRR (explained below). They borrow this from RBI but have to pay some interest on it. The interest that is to be paid on the amount to the RBI is called as Repo Rate. It does not function like a normal loan but acts like a forward contract. Banks have to provide collateral like government bonds, T-bills etc. Repo means Repurchase Option is the true meaning of Repo an agreement where the bank promises to repurchase these government securities after the repo period is over. As a tool to control inflation, RBI increases the Repo Rate making it more expensive for banks to borrow from the RBI with a view to restrict availability of money. Exact opposite stance shall be taken in case of deflationary environment. The change of repo rate is aimed to affect the flow of money in the economy. An increase in repo rate decreases the flow of money in the economy, while the decrease in repo rate increases the flow of money in the economy. RBI by changing these rates shows its stance to the economy at large whether they prioritize growth or inflation. - Reverse Repo Rate The rate at which the RBI is willing to borrow from the Banks is called as Reverse Repo Rate. If the RBI increases the reverse repo rate, it means that the RBI is willing to offer lucrative interest rate to banks to park their money with the RBI. Banks in this case agree to resell government securities after reverse repo period. Generally, an increase in reverse repo rate that banks will have a higher incentive to park their money with RBI. It decreases liquidity, affecting the market in a negative manner. Decrease in reverse repo rate increases liquidity affecting the market in a positive manner. Both the repo rate and reverse repo rate fall under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility tools for RBI. - Cash reserve ratio (CRR) Banks in India are required to deposit a specific percentage of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) in the form of CASH with the RBI. This minimum ratio (that is the part of the total deposits to be held as cash) is stipulated by the RBI and is known as the CRR or Cash Reserve Ratio. These reserves will not be in circulation at any point in time. For example, if a bank had a NDTL (like current Account, Savings Account and Fixed Deposits) of 100Cr and the CRR is at 3%, it would have to keep 3Cr as Cash reserve ratio to the RBI. This amount earns no interest. Currently it is at 3%. A lower cash ratio means banks can deposit just a lower amount and use the remaining money leading to higher liquidity. This translates to more money to invest which is seen as positive for the market. Inversely, a higher cash ratio equates to lower liquidity which translates to a negative market sentiment. Thus, the RBI uses the CRR to control excess money flow and regulate liquidity in the economy. - Statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) Banks in India have to keep a certain percentage of their net demand and time liabilities WITH THEMSELVES. And this can be in the form of liquid assets like gold and government securities, not just cash. A lot of banks keep them in government bonds as they give a decent interest. The current SLR ratio of 18.25%, which means that for every Rs.100 deposited in a bank, it has to invest Rs.18.50 in any of the asset classes approved by RBI. A low SLR means higher levels of loans to the private sector. This boosts investment and acts as a positive sentiment for the market. Conversely a high SLR means tighter levels of credit and can cause a negative effect on the market. Essentially, the RBI uses the SLR to control ease of credit in the economy. It also ensures that the banks maintain a certain level of funds to meet depositor’s demands instead of over liquidation. - Bank Rate Bank rate is a rate at which the Reserve Bank of India provides the loan to commercial banks without keeping any security. There is no agreement on repurchase that will be drawn up or agreed upon with no collateral as well. This is different from repo rate as loans taken with repo rate are taken on the basis of securities. Bank rate hence is higher than the repo rate. Currently the bank rate is 4.25%. Since bank rate is essentially a loan interest rate like repo rate, it affects the market in similar ways. - Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate (MCLR) This is the minimum rate below which the banks are not allowed to lend. Raising this rate, makes loans more expensive, drying up liquidity, affecting the market in a negative way. Similarly, lower MCLR rates will bring in high liquidity, affecting the market in a positive way. MCLR is a varying lending rate instead of a single rate according to the kind of loans. Currently, the MCLR rate is between 6.65% - 7.15% - Marginal Standing facility Marginal Standing Facility is the interest rate at which a depository institution (generally banks) lends or borrows funds with another depository institution in the overnight market. Overnight market is the part of financial market which offers the shortest term loans. These loans have to be repaid the next day. MSF can be used by a bank after it exhausts its eligible security holdings for borrowing under other options like the Liquidity adjustment facilities. The MSF would be a penal rate for banks and the banks can borrow funds by pledging government securities within the limits of the statutory liquidity ratio. The current rate stands at 4.25%. The effect it has on the market is synonymous with the other lending rates such as repo rate & bank rate. - Loan to value ratio The loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is an assessment of lending risk that financial institutions and other lenders examine before approving a mortgage. Typically, loan assessments with high LTV ratios are considered higher risk loans. Basically, if a companies preferred form of collateral rises in value and leads the market (growing faster than the market), then the company will see the loans that it signed with higher LTV suddenly reduce (but the interest rate remains the same). Let’s consider an example of gold as a collateral. Consider a loan was approved with gold as collateral. The market price for gold is Rs 2000/g, and for each g, a loan of Rs 1500 was given. (The numbers are simplified for understanding). This would put LTV of the loan at 1500/2000 = 0.75. Since it is a substantial LTV, say the company priced the loan at 20% interest rate. Now the next year, the price of gold rose to Rs 3000/kg. This would mean that the LTV of the current loan has changed to 0.5 but the company is not obligated to change the interest rate. This means that even if the company sees a lot of defaults, it is fairly protected by the unexpected surge in the underlying asset. Moreover, since the underlying asset is more valuable, default rates for the loans goes down as people are more protective of the collateral they have placed. The same scenario for gold is happening right now and is the reason for gold backed loan providers like MUTHOOT to hit ATHs as gold is leading the economy right now. Also, these in these scenarios, it also enables companies to offer additional loan on same gold for those who are interested Instead of keeping the loan amount same most of the gold loan companies. Based on above, we can see that as RBI changes LTV for certain assets, we are in a position to identify potential institutions that could get a good Quarterly result and try to enter it early. Conclusion The above rates contain the ways in the Central Bank manages the monetary policy, growth and inflation in the country. Its impact on Stock market is often seen when these rates are changed, they act as triggers for the intraday positions on that day. But overall, the outlook is always maintained on how the RBI sees the country is doing, and knee jerk reactions are limited to intraday positions. The long term stance is always well within the limits of the outlook the big players in the market are expecting. The important thing to keep in mind is that the problems facing the economy needn’t be uni-dimensional. Problems with inflation, growth, liquidity, currency depreciation all can come together, for which the RBI will have to play a balancing role with all it powers to change these rates and the forex reserve. So the effect on the market needs to be given more thought than simply extrapolated as ‘rates go low, markets go up’. But understanding these individual effects of these rates allows you to start putting together the puzzle of how and where the market and the economy could go.
How The Government Can Get 400,000 cr. to fight the Covid Slowdown
It’s obvious now that the lockdown will hurt India’s economy. And just as other countries are doing, we’ll need big stimulus to start pushing it back into gear. There’s a number of things that this process will involve: Old businesses can take time to come back to life. Because workers would have migrated, supply chains disrupted etc. They will need help to survive through a time when their factories or offices are shut, and to have paid intermediate salaries or rent. New businesses will have to be encouraged. Just as some businesses will need help, some of those will die. And those businesses will have to be replaced by others who are new and just getting in. Think of the barber shop that’s shut because it couldn’t pay rent for two months, but then people in the area will still need haircuts. Giving people and small businesses money directly into their accounts will probably become a necessity, to encourage people to spend or to pay for some of the damage caused due to the lockdown. The government will have to kickstart spending in a very large way – from better healthcare, to more infrastructure (to provide job) or simply to allow for the economy to rise again. This costs a ton of money. A rough estimate would be, say, Rs. 400,000 cr. The government doesn’t have this kind of money right now, and raising it by selling assets or issuing debt is enormously difficult. Because the debt it has is already quite large, though not as much compared to the western governments nowadays. However, it doesn’t need to take more debt. There’s money the government rightfully owns which sits idle in a very specific place. Here’s how it can get Rs. 400,000 cr. now. This kind of money doesn’t grow on trees, so what nonsense is this, Deepak? (I can hear you think) But bear with me, because I’ve thought this through. The money may not grow on trees, but there’s one big mega uncle who prints it, and generates a large amount of profit. It’s called the RBI. We have written earlier that the RBI has way too much money sitting in its balance sheet that it shouldn’t have. These are called “reserves” (very different from forex reserves). Read: The RBI is hoarding too much capital. Essentially, these are very large numbers of retained earnings, that has gone up even more now with this crisis. The extra earnings can be given back to the government, which can then spend it. Now, RBI makes a lot of money from multiple sources: It has nearly 10 lakh crore worth of government bonds, which, at 6.5% will give it roughly 65,000 cr. in interest per year. It also has, now, 35 lakh crores of Forex assets, (lets not call them “reserves” yet) , up over 6 lakh crores in the year. Yes, the RBI has bought a truckload of dollars this year. The forex reserves earned them over 74,000 cr. last year, and we expect this year to be a little more – probably 90,000 cr. all things considered. That is an income of 155,000 cr. already. Apart from this there is a big other benefit. Now the RBI owns all these dollars – it bought them when the rupee was lower (on average, probably Rs. 55 or so). When the dollar depreciates, to balance the accounts, the difference is placed in a Currency and Gold Revaluation Account (CGRA). The CGRA already had over Rs. 6 lakh crores last year. This year, considering the RBI has 450 billion dollars in foreign assets, that will add Rs. 4-5 per dollar as revaluation profit – around Rs. 200,000 cr. more in the CGRA. Due to accounting changes, and due to sales of dollars (around $30 billion in the full year) we should see around Rs. 60,000 cr. as a realized capital gain this year with the RBI. For details, here’s a good Ananth Narayan article, but note that I simply do not agree that such a profit is not a real profit – it’s as real as any rupee printed. The RBI doesn’t spend much: 7,000 cr. on employees, 5000 cr. on printing currency and this time, probably 10,000 cr. on payment of interest. What are you saying Deepak? All these big numbers…. Okay, ignore the nitty gritties. Simply put, RBI has a potential profit, this year, of around Rs. 200,000 cr. This is money it can remit straight to the government this year. Doesn’t it do that always? Well, no. The RBI is not very happy to be paying the government anything, to be honest. They keep building random “buffers” to avoid having to pay the government. See what all they have: Contingency fund: 200,000 cr. Why? We have no idea. The RBI never participates in any contingency whatsoever; all bank rescues are funded by the government or the PSUs or such. The RBI doesn’t even like to buy anything that isn’t government bonds, so they never take any balance sheet risk. There is no need for a contingency reserve at the RBI. And that too, 200,000 cr. – that’s more than 30% of India’s fiscal deficit! Come on. You might keep a little bit here, but to hoard such a large number here is unnecessary. Currency revaluation account: Now, over 800,000 cr. This is basically reflecting the fact that RBI bought dollars at Rs. 55 or gold at Rs. 1600 per gram and now the dollar is at 75, and gold is at 3800. This is huge. They keep adding to this fund every year, needlessly – a change in accounting procedure may help remove it. Asset Development Fund: Rs. 23,000 cr. Again, why? All major things owned by the RBI are now, by decree, transferred to the government. Examples: SBI, NABARD, NHB. Why should the RBI keep a reserve for this, especially when they have collectively spend less than 5000 cr. in the last five years from such a fund? What’s the point? Other stuff: Rs. 200,000 cr. This contains items like unrealized gains on Government bonds and foreign bonds Again, this should be a profit but is not recorded as one just so that they can avoid having to pay the government. (One simple way to record it is to sell all the bonds and buy them back instantly, converting all the unrealized gains to realised profit) In total, the RBI has a Rs. 13.5 lakh crores of extra profit (retained earnings of sorts) on its balance sheet. Every year, it generates a large profit and just keeps a good portion in each of these sub clauses, and avoids paying the government. In a partial correction, last year, they discovered that the excess on the balance sheet was too large, and paid out Rs. 1.76 lakh crores as dividend, but it still leaves a huge amount of room for more. You said Rs. 400,000 cr…. Yes, I’m coming to that. The RBI’s balance sheet is Rs. 47 lakh crores. The “equity” stuff on the balance sheet, which includes the “extra” stuff we talked about – is more than 13 lakh crores. That’s like 27% of their balance sheet. According to the recent Bimal Jalan committee report, the RBI should have a total buffer of about 21% – around 9.8 lakh crores. Given that they have more than 13.5 lakh crores – roughly 400,000 cr. can be given back to the government as dividend. But what will they sell to give dividends? Oh they don’t have to sell anything. The RBI has an account for the government. (It’s the govt’s banker). So you transfer from one account (the retained earnings) to another. That’s all. ￼Well, what happens when the government spends the money? It goes to a bank account with some bank. So that banks account with the RBI will swell up and the government’s will reduce. The RBI balance sheet doesn’t change – only the constituents do. Wait. Why all this now? Let’s get serious. This is a massive economic blow for the country. We will easily lose over 4% of GDP just to the lack of activity for a month. This has to be made up by massive government spending. That spending has to be financed. Already, the highest expenditure of the govt is interest payments. (Over 5 lakh crores in interest. The next highest entry, defence spending, is 40% lower!) The government may still need to borrow but why should it borrow when the RBI, which is owned by the government, has all the bloat sitting inside it? That’s like saying I have a lot of fixed deposits but let me go borrow money instead to pay for my urgent medical bills, even though I’m reeling under interest payments. The country needs help. We need to relax the ridiculously huge buffers maintained by the RBI in order for the government to spend. The RBI could pay a lot more – but this year, a 400,000 cr. payment looks very achievable without stepping on some toes. I’m not even asking for the government to eat into RBI’s already created massive reserves. Just that they take what profit would have been generated in this one year, instead of allowing RBI to bloat what is already much larger retained profits than required. Remember, most central banks have much lower retained equity as a percentage of their balance sheet. RBI is at 23% currently. Brazil is at 1%, Russia at 13%, South Africa at 1% and the closest perhaps is Germany at 13%. India’s RBI has simply way too much in terms of retained earnings and buffers. In the times of a crisis, you have to use buffers. This is a crisis. This is what a buffer was meant for. I know that a vast crowd will cry tears about how this undermines the independence of the RBI or some such random spiel, but this is not a time to listen to them. It’s time for us to place money in the hands of those that will shoulder the burden, and to not let it lie in forever-unused buffers like within the RBI. Note: What about inflation, you might ask. There will be no inflation by this; none of the above will cause balance sheet expansion of the RBI. And btw, the whole world is inflating and doing so heavily. And they’re all going to support their own countries with specific packages. In that context, there is very little likelihood of any inflation – in fact we’ll have to fight deflation in a slowdown. https://www.capitalmind.in/2020/04/how-the-government-can-get-400000-cr-to-fight-the-covid-slowdown/
The World This Week 10th July 2020 – 17th July 2020
Indian Equity Summary- · Sensex ended higher by 1.2 percent as the bullish trend persisted for the fifth consecutive week in the domestic equity market ,on the back ofØ positive global cues and optimism over the development of Covid-19 vaccine .The focus is now turning to Q1FY21 earning season and more importantly for guidance and viewpoints of management. · Going forward, global factors like development on the US -China relationship front , any resurgence of Covid-19 cases globally, as economiesØ have started opening up ; will continue to dictate the trend of the domestic equity market. We expect the trading range for Nifty between 10800-11200 in the near term. Indian Debt Market- · The bond prices fell as the yield on the latest 10-year benchmark 5.79% 2030 paper settled at 5.80% on Jul 17 compared with 5.76% on Jul 10.Ø · Reserve Bank of India announces the auction of three Government of India 91day, 182 day and 364 day Treasury Bills for an aggregate amount ofØ ₹35,000, to be conducted on 22nd July 2020. · State Governments announced to sell securities by way of an auction to be conducted on 21th July 2020, for an aggregate face value of ₹ 9,000 Cr.Ø · We expect that RBI will be in wait and watch mood before taking any major decision of rate cut on the back of recent inflation print.Ø · We expect the 10 year benchmark yield to trade between 5.80-6.05% in near term.Ø Domestic News · India’s retail trade has suffered a business loss of about Rs 15.5 lakh crore in past 100 days due to the COVID-19 pandemic as per theØ Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT). · The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from the US to India has crossed the $40 billion mark as on year to date, reflecting the growing confidence ofØ American companies in the country. · Forex reserves rose by $3.1 billion on a WoW basis to hit a record high of $516.36 billion for the week ended July 10, according to Reserve BankØ of India (RBI). · According to the latest data released by the Ministry of StatisticsØ & Programme Implementation (MoSPI), India’s retail inflation(CPI) grew to 6.09% in the month of June as against the prior released figure of 5.84 in April for the month of March. International News · Hong Kong's April-June unemployment rises to 6.2%, being the highest in over 15 years.Ø · Japan’s exports plunged 26.2% in June while Imports fell by 14.4% in June on a year on year basis , as per the data released byØ Ministry of Finance (MOF). · Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China fell 1.3% in the first half of this year from a year earlier to 472.18 billion yuan ($67.47Ø billion)as per China’s commerce ministry. · Gross domestic product (GDP) of China rose to 3.2% in the second-quarter from a year earlier as per the National Bureau ofØ Statistics, faster than the 2.5% forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll, with the easing of lockdown measures and ramping up of stimulus by policymakers to combat the virus-led downturn. · US GDP is expected to contract by an annualised rate of 37% in the Q2 2020 and by 6.6%for 2020 as a whole as per theØ International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff. Link - http://www.karvywealth.com/data/sites/1/skins/karvywealth/Download_media_report.aspx?FileName=B98EB615-C7D5-409D-AFF1-05C92C06DBE4|5234282 vH�X��Py
Facing an unprecedented crisis, India has ratcheted up its forex reserves like never before
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot)
The country's foreign exchange reserves are at an all-time high of over $500 billion, according to data released by India's central bank on June 12.The strong forex pool provides stability in today's grim economic conditions. The rise of forexThe reasons behind the swelling forex reserves are India's shrinking import bill, an increase in foreign direct investments, improved inflows from foreign portfolio investors into the stock and debt markets, and the Reserve Bank of India's buying spree. "These assets, which are in other foreign currencies, are appreciating against the dollar and this too is pushing up the forex reserve valuations," he said. Friends with benefitsThe biggest beneficiary of strong forex reserves is the Indian currency. Pointing to 2013 when the Indian rupee depreciated by more than 20% in a span of just 4-6 weeks, Chari states that "The size of the forex reserves with respect to the current account deficit and portfolio flows becomes a key determinant of whether the currency can come under a speculative attack." Apart from protecting the rupee, large forex reserves act as an assurance to the world that India can meet its external obligations like payment for imports.
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As negotiations to finalise the long-overdue Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) enter final stages, Prime Minister Modi said India has put forward reasonable proposals in a clear manner and is engaged in the talks with sincerity for the free trade deal. Modi said India is clear that a mutually beneficial RCEP, in which all sides gain reasonably, is in interests of the country and of all nations involved in the negotiation. -Business Line A day after SEBI put in place tighter disclosure norms, Indian Bank, Union Bank of India and Lakshmi Vilas Bank on Friday reported divergence in their bad loans for the last fiscal ended March 2019. For LVB, the net loss widened to Rs 1,006 crore from Rs 894 crore. -Economic Times The RBI has rejected a proposal by ICICI Bank for appointment of Sandeep Batra as an executive director (ED) after SEBI penalised him in a case related to merger of Bank of Rajasthan.“The Bank has received a communication from RBI not acceding to the request for appointment of Batra at present and to resubmit the proposal for approval after one year from the conclusion of settlement proceedings,” ICICI Bank said in a regulatory filing late on Friday night. -Business Line The RBI has refused to relent on its guidelines requiring chief executives of private banks to mandatorily retire at the age of 70, setting the stage for Aditya Puri to step down as HDFC Bank MD & CEO next October, while Romesh Sobti will retire as IndusInd Bank chief at the end of the financial year. -Economic Times PSBs are talking to the RBI under the aegis of the IBA to allow a staggered recognition of deferred tax assets (DTA) for FY20 in order to avoid taking large hits on their bottomlines. “We are assessing the matter and even the RBI and IBA are talking about it,” said an executive aware of the development. -Financial Express US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das in the financial capital today. The two discussed “global and domestic macro-economic scenario in both countries and regulatory developments”, according to an official statement from the central bank. -Business Line The global investor which has submitted a binding bid to invest $1.2 billion in Yes Bank is a North American family office that is interested in picking up more than a third of the bank’s shareholding. “We have a nondisclosure agreement with the investor. The bank’s capital-raising committee could meet as early as next week to decide on the proposal and, should they approve it, the name will be made public,” said Yes Bank MD & CEO Ravneet Gill. -Economic Times Karur Vysya Bank has posted a 24.37% dip in its standalone net profit for the second quarter ended September 2019 to ₹63.33 crore compared with the corresponding year-ago period on higher provisioning. -The Hindu Lakshmi Vilas Bank, in a regulatory filing, said Non-Executive Non-Independent Director Anuradha Pradeep has resigned from the board. -Business Standard India’s GDP could grow 6.6% in 2020-24, lower than its 2013-17 average of 7.4%, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said today. -Economic Times China's Fosun Tourism Group said it would acquire the Thomas Cook and related hotel brands for 11 million pounds in a bid to expand its presence in the tourism business. -Economic Times A 65 Year olddepositor of the scam-hit Punjab & Maharashtra Cooperative (PMC) Bank died due to a heart attack in neighboring Navi Mumbai, her family said. Kuldeep Kaur Vig (64) is the seventh PMC Bank depositor to have died after the alleged ₹4,355 crore scam at the bank came to light and the RBI imposed restrictions on withdrawal of funds. -Livemint NPCI on November 1 said the number of transactions of Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has crossed the landmark figure of 1 billion in October. "The total transactions of UPI jumped to 1.15 billion in October 2019 from 0.96 billion in September 2019," NPCI said in a release. Total transaction value of UPI stood at Rs 1.91 lakh crore during the month, up from Rs 1.61 lakh crore in the previous month. -Moneycontrol.com India's forex reserves increased by $1.832 billion to a new lifetime high of $442.583 billion in the week ended October 25, helped by a jump in core currency assets and value of gold, RBI data showed on November 1. The overall kitty had expanded by $1.04 billion to $440.751 billion in the previous reporting week. -Moneycontrol.com
MPs, state legislatures, or local bodies such as municipal corporations cannot be on the boards of public sector banks. Also, partners of chartered accountancy firms engaged as statutory central auditors at any PSB cannot join the boards of these banks, RBI said in an updated circular on fit and proper criteria in PSBs. -Economic Times The RBI clarified that banks and NBFCs cannot impose foreclosure charges / pre-payment penalties on any floating rate term loan sanctioned, for purposes other than business, to individual borrowers with or without co-obligant(s). The RBI has done away with foreclosure charges /pre-payment penalties on all floating rate term loans sanctioned to individual borrowers with effect from May 7, 2014. -Business Line IMPS is gaining traction and the number of transactions rose to 19 crores in July even as the transaction value for UPI and the Centre’s flagship digital payment app BHIM continued to decline for the second straight month. According to data released by the NPCI, IMPS hit a record high in July in terms of value, too. As many as 18.92 crore transactions amounting to over ₹1.82-lakh crore were conducted through IMPS in July against 17.13 crore transactions worth over ₹1.73-lakh crore in June. -Business Line Clearcorp Dealing Systems India Ltd (Clearcorp), a wholly owned subsidiary of Clearing Corporation of India Ltd, will launch its forex trading platform, FX-Retail, for the customers of banks on Aug 5. The FX-Retail platform will provide an anonymous and order driven dealing in US Dollar (USD) / Indian Rupee (INR) currency pair for bank customers -- individuals, sole proprietorship firms, partnership firms and corporates, Clearcorp said in a statement. -Business Line Corporation Bank registered a net profit of ₹103.27 crore in the first quarter of 2019-20 as against a profit of ₹84.96 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, recording a growth of 21.55%. -Business Line SBI today said the RBI has imposed a penalty of Rs 50 lakh on it for non-compliance relating to reporting of frauds. -Economic Times Oriental Bank of Commerce & Punjab National Bank today said the RBI has imposed a penalty of Rs 50 lakhs on them for non-compliance relating to reporting of frauds in the Kingfisher Airlines account. -Economic Times Bandhan Bank would open 187 new branches by the end of the current FY, taking the total number to 1,187, a top official said today. The bank would also open 340 doorstep service centres by 2019-20, MD & CEO Chandra Sekhar Ghosh said. -Economic Times Punjab & Sind Bank said it has declared NPA account Fairdeal Supplies Ltd as a fraud and has reported the matter to the RBI, it said in a regulatory filing. -Economic Times LIC Housing Finance reported an 8% increase in standalone net profit at ₹611 crore in the first quarter (Q1FY20) against ₹568 crore in the year-ago period. -Business Line Former RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao on Friday said that any government trying to “raid” the balance sheet of a central bank can be seen as a desperate move. -Business Line A spate of reforms undertaken by the Government has led to the current slowdown in the country, Amitabh Kant, the CEO of policy think-tank NITI Aayog, said. This came as a note of caution from the senior official as he was advocating a series of policy decisions to revive the economy. -The Hindu The country's forex reserves decreased by $727 million to $429.649 billion for the week ended July 26, led by a decline in foreign currency assets, RBI data showed on Friday. -Moneycontrol.com As the Rajya Sabha passed the Code on Wages, 12 Central Trade Unions, except the BMS, held protest across the country demanding the Centre to withdraw the proposed Labour Codes. Terming the 4 proposed codes anti-labour, the trade unions alleged that the Bills are being passed without any tripartite negotiations with trade unions, chambers of commerce and the Governments. They alleged that there is a conspiracy to take away the right to work for 8 hours and give the power to the State governments and the Centre to set working hours. -Business Line
In a bid to deal with stress in NBFC sector, guidelines will be issued soon for PSBs to take over pooled assets of NBFCs, a finance ministry official said. "Both Department of Economic Affairs, and Financial Services are in consultation. The eligibility norms for takeover should be out this week or latest by next week," the official said.
The RBI will come out with a mobile application to help visually challenged people in identifying currency notes. The RBI said that identification of banknote denomination is key to successful completion of cash-based transactions by visually impaired persons. -Business Line SBI Payment Services Pvt Ltd (SBIPSPL) is planning to double the number of point-of-sale (PoS) units deployed by it to 1.2 million by 2021- 22 (FY 22). This is part of the Co’s strategy to be a key player in the Centre’s ambitious plan to increase the number of PoS terminals across the country. -Business Standard Led by LIC, life insurers’ collective new premium income jumped 94% to ₹32,241.33 crore in June this year, according to data from IRDAI. All the 24 life insurers had written new gross premium of ₹16,611.57 in the same month a year ago. -Business Line Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd (DHFL) reported a huge standalone net loss of Rs 2223 crore in the fourth quarter ended March 31, 2019 against a net profit of Rs 134 crore in the year ago quarter. -Business Line Dewan Housing Finance Corp Ltd (DHFL), warned that its financial situation was so grim that it may not survive. The Co said it was "undergoing substantial financial stress" and its ability to raise funds was "substantially impaired and the business has been brought to a standstill with there being minimal/virtually no disbursements." -Economic Times Thomas Cook has refuted allegations that an investigation is underway concerning its forex business breaching the Rs 14.7 crore foreign exchange reserve mark at the Cochin International Airport. As per media reports, the Air Customs Intelligence department had initiated an enquiry against Thomas Cook and had written to the RBI demanding cancellation of the Co's license after an alleged 'misappropriation' occurred while granting foreign exchange to foreign nationals at the Cochin International Airport. -Economic Times 9 of the 10 most valued firms suffered a combined erosion of ₹ 88,609.87 crore in market valuation last week, with HDFC Bank and TCS taking the biggest knock. Reliance Industries Ltd was the lone gainer among the top-10 frontline companies, adding ₹ 11,415.21 crore to its market capitalisation (m-cap) for the week ended Friday to reach ₹ 8,11,782.20 crore. On the other hand, HDFC Bank’s valuation plummeted ₹ 22,395.4 crore to ₹ 6,54,084.95 crore. The valuation of SBI tanked ₹ 6,291.85 crore to ₹ 3,24,454.25 crore and that of ICICI Bank dropped ₹ 5,925.68 crore to ₹ 2,75,568.83 crore. -Business Line
Department of Financial Services (DFS) has informed that RBI is examining the priority sector lending norms for promoting export credit, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said. -Economic Times The Finance Ministry today said that it will look into the applicability of 20% tax proposed in the 2019-20 Budget on the current share buybacks by listed companies. Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg, speaking at a CII event, said the proposed tax on listed companies is aimed at discouraging share buybacks and encouraging investments. -Economic Times The Indian Government had Rs 66,793 crore outstanding loans with the RBI under ways and means advances in the week ended July 5, according to the RBI weekly statistical supplement released today. The Central Government had Rs 6,596 crore outstanding loans in the week earlier. State governments had Rs 5,566 crore loans from the RBI in the week ended July 5, compared with Rs 1,661 crore in the previous week, the release showed. -Economic Times Even as the real estate industry complains of a slowdown in sales, a RBI survey has said that housing has become less affordable over the last 4 years. This indicates that developers are holding on to prices. -Economic Times NABARD today said it plans to raise about Rs 55,000 crore from the market in the current fiscal to fund its business growth and also support various agricultural and rural development schemes of the Government. -Business Line After the merger of Bank of Baroda with Dena Bank and Vijaya Bank, the amalgamated lender is focusing on integrating the sprawling technology systems of the 3 financial firms to provide a smooth customer experience. The IT heads of the 3 banks, which together have over 9,500 branches, began chalking out an integration strategy the moment the deal was announced. They, however, had some time before the required slew of approvals came in for the three-way merger. -Economic Times The Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank will launch local currency financing products in India and some other countries this year to provide more options to borrowers, its president Jin Liqun has said. The multilateral development bank could start rolling out the product in pilot countries including India, Indonesia, Thailand and Russia from this month itself. It would focus on private sector clients, Jin said. -Economic Times SBI has waived charges on NEFT and RTGS transactions through internet and mobile banking from July 1, after the RBI decided to do away with the charges with an aim to move the country towards less-cash economy. The SBI has also decided to do away with the charges on fund transfer through mobile phones using the IMPS (immediate payment service) from August 1. -Business Line IndusInd Bank today reported a 38.30% year-on-year jump in consolidated profit at Rs 1,432.50 crore for the June quarter. The bank had reported a net of Rs 1,035.72 crore in the year ago period. -Economic Times UCO Bank is making all efforts to ensure that exporters who do business with Iran can approach its designated branches for help. The bank has increased the number of such designated branches (for doing business with Iran) from 22 to 67. It is now contemplating to set up an apex processing centre across its branch network to help exporters. “This could take another 6-7 months,” a top bank official said. -Business Line YES Bank as an issuing and paying agent, facilitated the issuance of a Commercial Paper of INR 100 Crores using Blockchain technology for Vedanta LTD, a natural resources conglomerate. This is the first time in Asia that a CP has been digitally issued using Blockchain technology. -Moneycontrol.com Axis Bank tied up with. Flipkart to launch a co-branded credit card and is aiming to sell 1 million of the new card in a year. The new co-branded card comes weeks after American lender CITI launched a similar offering by tying up with payments major Paytm. -Economic Times India’s industrial output growth slipped to 3.1% in May mainly on account of subdued performance of mining and manufacturing sector, according to Government data released today. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) had expanded by 3.8% in May 2018. The index grew at 4.3% in April and 0.4% in March this year. -Business Line Retail inflation increased marginally to 3.18% in June over the previous month, mainly due to rise in food prices, according to official data. The retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 3.05% in May and and 4.92% in June 2018. -Business Line India's foreign exchange reserves rose to fresh record high of $429.91 billion as the country's gold and foreign currency assets increased in the week ended July 5. The forex reserves had touched record highs in the previous two weeks. -Moneycontrol.com The Government may approach the Ministry of Law and Justice for clarification on monitoring of the recently privatised IDBI Bank. The LIC in January 2019 acquired a 51% stake in the Bank, which reclassified it as a private sector financial institution. -Moneycontrol.com The NCLAT today said pension and PF that had invested in IL&FS would have top priority in payment from all categories of companies, whether classified as green, amber or red. -Business Standard Infosys today reported 5.2% growth in consolidated net profit to Rs 3,802 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2019. It had posted a net profit of Rs 3,612 crore in the April-June 2018 quarter, Infosys said in a BSE filing. -Business Line USD/INR 68.68 SENSEX 38736.23(-86.88) NIFTY50 11552.50(-30.40)
It is quite usual to hear that someone or the other wishes to go for an International Trip. In fact, we all have been there and have experienced the curiosity of experiencing the adventures, isn't it!? Just when we are trying to absorb all these thoughts and plan on sinking in it, right then, at that very moment we are hit by the serious responsibilities that tag along with the overseas trip. While there are many things that one must take care of, the most important of them is 'understanding Forex Exchange money system.' If you are a first time traveller then understanding the nuances of forex services is essential too. BookMyForex.com is an online Marketplace that offers buying, selling and remitting of Forex online with and active customer support, making your trip a perfect one. Usually, educating oneself about the foreign exchange system is quite easy. However, when we come to the stage of understanding foreign currency conversion, it poses a threat to people. For instance, if you research on google about Euro, you'll find out a whole list of doubts about the Euro conversion live rates that people have. Don't believe it? Here are a few answers to some of the most common doubts about the Euro that people tend to have: Is the Euro used by other countries as their currency too? Yes, just like the US dollar the Euro is also accepted and recognised as an official currency by 19 out of 28-member states of the European Union. Apart from these 19, there are these institutions of the European Union along with the four European microstates and other special territories that are the members of the EU outside Europe. These places accept the Euro as their official currency for transactions in direct terms. Are there any similarities between the rates of The Euro and The US dollar? No, there are no similarities between the conversion rates of these two mega currencies of the world, their rates are decided separately on their respective growth, demand and place of value. However, the only similarities that one can find between these is that they have the common Central Bank in the eurozone. Also, just like the dollar, the euro is also a reserve currency. In fact, it is the second largest currency after the dollar that is also a reserve currency and the most traded one too. As of August 2018, it was reported that with 1.2 trillion euros in circulation in terms of banknotes and coins, the Euro has surpassed the US dollar. https://preview.redd.it/l083mgkyi6g21.jpg?width=620&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ca077c52defc1aca048ba55097a3e816fcff51f6 How to find the best currency conversion rates? The emergence of the digital era has made life cakewalk easy...If you are a first-time traveller and are finding any difficulties such as searching for trusted money exchangers, good rates, you can simply get the live rates online through BookMyForex.com. BookMyForex.com is the world’s first and largest online marketplace for foreign exchange. You can find the best rates online which are the latest to last second. As an authorised money exchanger regulated by the Reserve Bank of India, bookmyforex.com is trusted by 3lac+ Indians with over ₹3,000+Cr exchanged. Are there any extra/hidden charges behind the rates that are given? There's a danger of getting different rates from different money exchangers outside as they include commission charges for providing services that are rendered to them by someone else. Thus, resulting in numerous rates from numerous money exchangers. Whereas, converting currency online through BookMyForex.com gives you the best Euro Live Rate that include no hidden charges. As an RBI authorised online marketplace for buying, selling and remitting forex, BookMyForex.com has successful at helping people to exchange 2500+ crores of foreign currency. They are available at almost 650 cities with over 5000 locations, thus ending your search by bringing it to the access of your fingertips. Still waiting? Just book online through BookMyForex and get the Forex delivered right at your doorsteps.*
Alright people, here it is, I am now going to try and explain the whole rupee fall phenomenon as simply as I can. We're going to first try and discuss the concepts involved here and then look at what our policy makers have done. Here's hoping that you last till the end cause it was quite a lot of effort. Why am I doing this? I am tired of all the lame rupee fall jokes that flooded my WhatsApp last week. I am tired of all the people telling the government to 'Make it stop!' (Spoiler: It's not that simple). Also, I am going to get out in the job market soon and am too lazy to brush up my basics in a formal way. The prospect of educating fellow redditors makes it worth the effort. Why should you read all of this? Because you care and by the end of this, hopefully, you'll be able to talk about this in a smarter way which will potentially improve your chances with that girl. It is likely that you may already know the answers to some of the questions here. Go right ahead and skip them because I am trying to do an ELI5 here. Let's take it from the top. What is a foreign exchange rate? It is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged with another. Why do foreign exchange rates exist? Simply because the currency of one country will not be accepted in another. We have a lot of countries and we have a lot of currencies and judging by the feeds on facebook, people travel a lot. Fun fact#1: The US dollar and the Euro account for approximately 50 percent of all currency exchange transactions in the world. Adding British pounds, Canadian dollars, Australian dollars, and Japanese yen to the list accounts for over 80 percent of currency exchanges altogether. Who or what decides the exchange rate between two currencies? On a fundamental level, The value of currency, like the price of any other good or service, depends on its demand and supply. And demand for a currency, say, the US dollar, typically comes from Indian importers, people or institutions that invest in the US and travellers to the US. All these agents require dollars for transacting in the US. Analogously, exporters to the US, travellers to India and investor inflows supply US dollars in return for rupees to transact in India. If the demand for the rupee decreases compared to, say, the US dollar, the value of the rupee goes down, and vice-versa So, it's all driven by market (buyers and sellers) forces? No, There are other factors too. But we'll take them up when we're discussing the Indian context. What role does something like RBI do in all this? To understand this, we're going to dive into a little bit of theory. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of handling your currency's exchange rate: A. The Floating Exchange Rate: The market determines a floating exchange rate. In other words, a currency is worth whatever buyers are willing to pay for it. This is determined by supply and demand, which is in turn driven by foreign investment, import/export ratios, inflation, and a host of other economic factors. Generally, countries with mature, stable economic markets will use a floating system. Virtually every major nation uses this system. Floating exchange rates are considered more efficient, because the market will automatically correct the rate to reflect inflation and other economic forces. The floating system isn't perfect, though. If a country's economy suffers from instability, a floating system will discourage investment. Investors could fall victim to wild swings in the exchange rates, as well as disastrous inflation. Did that previous paragraph ring a bell? Interestingly though, we don't follow a floating rate system. Fun fact#2: Canada is the only country whose currency's value is determined absolutely and entirely by the foreign exchange market or as we just learned, by means of a 'floating exchange rate'. Their Central Bank has never intervened in years. B. The Fixed or Pegged Exchange Rate: A pegged, or fixed system, is one in which the exchange rate is set and artificially maintained by the government. The rate will be pegged to some other country's dollar, usually the U.S. dollar. The rate will not fluctuate from day to day. You decree that 1 US Dollar will always be equal to 35 Rupees and that is it. Countries that have potentially unstable economies usually use a pegged system. Developing nations can use this system to prevent out-of control-inflation. And now your thinking: Holy shit! We can do that? Why aren't we doing that? Why don't we get our currency pegged as seen in the Fixed or Pegged Exchange Rate system? For starters, the system can backfire. If the real world market value of the currency is not reflected by the pegged rate, a black market may spring up, where the currency will be traded at its market value, disregarding the government's peg. When people realize that their currency isn't worth as much as the pegged rate indicates, they may rush to exchange their money for other, more stable currencies. This can lead to economic disaster, since the sudden flood of currency in world markets drives the exchange rate very low. So if a country doesn't take good care of their pegged rate, they may find themselves with worthless currency. To further explain, assume that the demand for US dollar increases. Consequently, its value increases, such that each dollar can now buy 10 rupees instead of 4 previously. To offset such an increase, the RBI pumps in sufficient amount of dollars into the market to meet the increased demand. This process ensures that the value of the dollar is restored to its original one. The central bank can supply and draw dollars from forex reserves, which is its official kitty. Well, the problem is, we ain't got much forex reserves. India’s forex reserves, which stand at $270 billion(As of the end of August, 2013) approximately, cannot defend the falling rupee eternally. To make sense out of that figure, let us assume that one bad day, all foreign investors in our country decide to take back their money (which is extremely unlikely). In that dire situation, the RBI would have to borrow to a tune of $215 million to pay them all back. To make matters worse, the increasing oil imports and falling export share in the recent months have contributed significantly towards draining (the already concerning levels of) our forex reserves. The arguments above indicate that the RBI does not have sufficient cushion to strictly adhere to a fixed rate regime. In fact, forex reserves are the only major 'reactionary tool' we have to prevent any speculation based downfall in the value of rupee. So if Forex reserves are so damn important, why haven't we been building them up? Actually, we have been trying to. Refer this graph. If you do a simple forex reserves News based search on Google, you'll find that the last month has seen a lot of ups and downs in it implying that the RBI is scrambling to plug the hole by raising and spending these reserves. But it's still not good enough. But but...that is a good graph, why is it not good enough? Enter Mr. CAD, the media's favourite buzzword At the end of 2007, the Current Account Deficit(Mr. CAD) of India stood at $8 billion. If you refer the above graph, you'll notice that we had a forex reserve of around 300 billion by that time. That means our forex reserves were 37.5 times the CAD. For 2013, the current account deficit is at $90 billion whereas the foreign exchange reserves are down to around $270 billion. That's just around 3 times that of the CAD. That is an alarming fall. What is a Current Account Deficit? Occurs when a country's total imports of goods, services and transfers is greater than the country's total export of goods, services and transfers. This situation makes a country a net debtor to the rest of the world. So, evidently, it has an impact with your foreign exchange rates. A substantial current account deficit is not necessarily a bad thing for certain countries. Developing countries may run a current account deficit in the short term to increase local productivity and exports in the future. Why is our Current Account Deficit so bad? Simply because we get a lot of our stuff from the outside. The most significantly burdensome items that we import are Gold and Oil. The two of them together constitute almost 50% of our total imports! Gold No kidding, we Indians love the yellow metal. We are in fact the largest consumer of Gold in the world. No seriously, our country is single handedly responsible for upto 20% consumption of the worldwide gold consumption. It makes sense to us because not only can we show it off at social events, we can also readily sell it later. In effect, it's like a Saving from the perspective of the mango people. Most Indians are blithely unaware that gold is not locally sourced but actually imported from countries such as Switzerland and the United Arab Emirates. Which is why we had Mr. Chidambaram 'appealing' to us. But nobody's going to listen to your appeals, Sir. My own financial security will always be more important than your CAD-MAD bullshit. Which is why we have steadily increased the import tariffs on Gold imports in an attempt to discourage gold consumption. Not very effective but it's something. Make no mistake though, although it will be 'nice' to have people buy less gold this season, in the long run, it will save yo ass. Fun Fact#3: "I have never bought gold at any point of time in my life. I don’t wear any jewelry — be it a ring or a chain, For me gold is just another metal, it just shines a little bit more.” - P. Chidambaram, Finance Minister of India - A country which is the largest consumer of Gold. Contd as Comment Below Due to Character Restrictions. Continue Reading at 'Oil'
CLSA: Greed & Fear : Modi and Banking Amendments [NP]
Chris Wood of CLSA is one of the most revered Equity Strategist. He periodically writes 'GREED & FEAR' series explaining his views and strategies. He usually meets the policymakers, CEOs and sector experts before forming his opinions on each country and the market. This is a txt copy of the latest edition. CLSA: GREED & FEAR : MODI AND BANKING AMENDMENTS - 11th May 2017 GREED & fear’s base case for 2017, namely for global equity investors to be overweight global emerging markets and the Eurozone, has been strengthened by Emmanuel Macron’s victory. Macron’s victory will have further encouraged hopes of a re-energised Franco-German alliance at the heart of the Eurozone and related hopes of a renewed drive towards integration. Whether such hopes prove to be a reality is quite another matter. But for the moment they can propel European equities higher in the run up to the German election where GREED & fear’s base case remains a Merkel victory. GREED & fear also remains constructive on the euro since the base case must be that Derivative Draghi will signal some increase in token tapering at the next ECB monetary policy meeting on 8 June. As for the US, renewed hopes that the Trump administration will be able to pass reform of Obamacare are again encouraging expectations that tax reform can be passed more quickly than previously anticipated. This remains extremely optimistic from GREED & fear’s standpoint, with the major uncertainty whether Republicans in Congress will insist on the package being revenue neutral. But for now such hopes may keep the 10-year Treasury bond yield above 2.3% and therefore equities reasonably constructive. Yet if such hopes of near-term tax cuts are dashed, GREED & fear’s view remains that the yield curve is vulnerable to renewed flattening given that the evidence remains that the downside risk to economic growth in America are rising not falling. More tightening by the Fed, let alone the commencement of balance sheet contraction, increases the risk for US equities and strengthens the case to be long Treasury bonds absent aggressive tax cuts. It also increases the argument to be underweight American equities in a global portfolio. It is a reality of market sentiment that the China reflation trade is currently being questioned. GREED & fear’s base case is that the bulk of the correction in commodities is over, be it in copper, iron ore and other China reflation trade proxies. Still GREED & fear is much less sanguine on oil where hopes of keeping oil above US$50 rest on OPEC being able to agree on an extension of the current production agreement at its forthcoming meeting scheduled for 25 May. In the absence of such a deal, oil looks vulnerable.There is now a following wind in Europe until the German federal election in September where investors currently anticipate a positive result. The issue will then become whether a Eurozone with a Merkel-Macron leadership or, less likely, a Macron-Schulz leadership, will really push for renewed integration on a presumed path to fiscal union. For that is what will be required in GREED & fear’s view to keep Italy in the Eurozone. If Asia and emerging markets remain an overweight forGREED & fear, India also remains the most preferred equity story in the emerging market universe on a ten-year view. This long-term constructive view has been strengthened by evidence that the Modi government is showing a renewed focus to address the asset quality problem in the banking sector. The key development on the bad loan problem was the publication late last week of an ordinance amending the Banking Regulation Act. The key purpose of this amendment is to empower the Reserve Bank of India to intervene in specific cases of default as well as to give the central bank the authority to require specific defaults to be sent to the insolvency court if lenders and borrowers cannot reach resolution.The other aim of this amendment is to remove a concern shared by all bankers that, if they agree to a haircut on a specific loan, they will be at risk of future investigation by the judiciary or an investigative agency. It is the reluctance of the banks to take haircuts which has been the key cause of India’s long festering banking problem.The lack of progress addressing this legacy problem in the banking sector is the main reason why India is still seeing no evidence of a renewed private sector-driven investment cycle. While there have, in GREED & fear’s view, been enormous achievements in other areas of policy, the missing link is the banking sector with the bulk of the problem lying in the state-owned banks.The new approach requires the RBI to execute proactively on its new powers. The good news is that the RBI’s technocratic approach means that its management of the NPA problem will be less politicised than if handled by other government agencies. The word in Delhi is that the RBI will come out with clear guidelines in the near future on how this process will work.There is naturally much scepticism as to whether resolutions of bad debt cases will happen given the previous failure to address the NPA problem. Still, in GREED & fear’s view it is wrong to be too sceptical since, if the RBI is prepared to be tough, it has the leverage to apply, since it now has the power to invoke the insolvency code against defaulters. Once the NPA issue is resolved, the way will be clear for the public sector banks to raise capital, a process which should also lead, with the encouragement of both the RBI and the government, to the consolidation of the public sector banks. The rest of the Indian story under the extraordinary Modi remains as vibrant as ever. While it is true that the Aadhaar programme was launched under the previous government, the real roll out and practical application of the programme has been massively leveraged since Modi assumed power. The benefits of direct electronic payments are hard to exaggerate in terms of reduced leakages and the like. There is also the approaching launch of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). While this will not be as clean as originally hoped, the arrival of GST is a big deal. The fundamental point to focus on is that GST will end inter-state barriers to trade. The result should be increased tax revenues.GREED & fear remains constructive even if the Indian stock market is certainly expensive on a forward earnings basis. The continuing rise in the stock market year to date, and the resulting re-rating, has been triggered primarily by ongoing strong inflows into domestic equity mutual funds.These inflows into the mutual funds have been a feature ever since Modi was elected and reflect a growing preference for financial assets over traditional assets not traditionally visible to the taxman in India, namely property and gold. The investment in Naver in the Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio will be removed. An investment in Indian state-owned bank State Bank of India will be initiated with a 3% weighting, while a further 1ppt will be added to the existing investment in HDFC.China’s foreign exchange reserves increased by US$20.4bn in April. This marks the first time China’s forex reserves have increased for three consecutive months since June 2014. CLSA’s economics team estimates a mark-to-market gain of US$25bn in April, which implies a balance of payments deficit of only US$5bn in April. This further reinforces the view here that capital flight in China is not out of control.The latest Chinese inflation data provides further evidence that China PPI inflation has already peaked. PPI inflation slowed for the second consecutive month, down from 7.6% YoY in March to 6.4% YoY in April. The slowdown can be partly explained by the base effect. But China PPI also declined on a month on month basis for the first time since June 2016.
10 Countries with the Biggest Forex Reserves. FACEBOOK TWITTER LINKEDIN By Elvis Picardo. Updated Mar 7, 2020. Foreign currency reserves are vital to a nation's economic well-being. Without ... India’s foreign exchange (forex) reserves surged by $3.883 billion to touch a lifetime high of $541.431 billion in the week ended August 28, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed on Friday (September 4). India’s forex reserves had crossed $500 billion for the first time ever in the week ended June 5, 2020, hitting what was then the all-time high of $501.7 billion. RBI to Block Indian Forex Traders' Bank Accounts. Sep 19 2013 By Forexbrokerz.com. Indian fans of Forex trading have suffered another blow earlier this week, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on September 17th issued a notification that orders banks to act tough on anyone involved in online Forex trading. Like Forex was ever Legal in India . Many of you may ask what's the big deal given that ... Last time, we had discussed what forex reserves with the RBI are and why does it have forex reserves in the first place. ... In this manner, our exports will be hit as other countries wouldn’t want to buy from our country as it will cost them more. This phenomenon was explained yesterday. And the money we get from selling those assets won’t be as effective as they alone won’t be able to ... RBI to move to NGTA for managing forex, gold reserves; RBI to move to NGTA for managing forex, gold reserves With this introduction, the NGTA will be a web-based application providing scalability, maneuverability and flexibility to introduce new products and securities along with multi-currency transactions and settlements. April 14, 2015 Dear All Welcome to the refurbished site of the Reserve Bank of India. The two most important features of the site are: One, in addition to the default site, the refurbished site also has all the information bifurcated functionwise; two, a much improved search – well, at least we think so but you be the judge. Almost all countries in world, regardless of size of their economy, hold significant foreign exchange reserves. The components of India’s FOREX Reserves include Foreign currency assets (FCAs), Gold Reserves, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and RBI’s Reserve position with International Monetary Fund (IMF). FCAs constitute largest component of ... RBI Bulletin; History; DRG Studies; KLEMS; State Statistics and Finances; Statistics. Data Releases; Database on Indian Economy; Public Debt Statistics; Home; Publications; Weekly; Weekly Statistical Supplement; Weekly Statistical Supplement WSS - Extract. 06 Nov 2020 ; Foreign Exchange Reserves: 9 kb: 189 kb: 30 Oct 2020; Foreign Exchange Reserves: 9 kb: 854 kb: 23 Oct 2020; Foreign Exchange ... The increase in reserves does give India adequate cushion to combat external shocks. The importance of forex reserves for RBI, economy 2 min read. Now back to Forex reserves of the RBI. These forex reserves are constituted of foreign currency assets, gold as well as Special Drawing Rights from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These special drawing rights are a claim to the currency held by IMF member countries for which they can be exchanged. They are maintained by IMF and are ready to use reserves so are thus, counted as forex ...
RBI/ Indian Forex Reserves All Time High but Economy in ...
Forex Reserves Soar $2.3 Bn to Touch All Time High of $453 Bn RBI Data #NewsOfTheDay #EtvTelangana. RBI, Establishment, Functions ,Role, Forex Reserve, CAD, Trade Deficit, Current & Capital Account, Monetary Policy, Monetary Policy Committee. India’s foreign exchange reserves are rising and are slated to hit the $500 billion mark soon. In the month of May, forex reserves jumped by $12.4 billion to an all-time high of $493.48 billion ... India's forex reserves surged by $2.6 billion to reach an all-time high of $400.7 billion on account of rise in foreign currency assets, according to RBI. वर्तमान परिदृश्य में जब कोरोना के कारण अर्थव्यवस्था मन्दी मे ... Forex in Balance sheet of RBI India’s Forex reserves Journey Sources of forex reserves Current account balance Difference between imports and exports of country Exports bring in forex and ... Module 27 RBI Functions - Custodian of Foreign Reserves Banking Awareness GKToday GKToday. Loading... Unsubscribe from GKToday? Cancel Unsubscribe. Working... Subscribe Subscribed ...